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Click Here to return to
Carlos Richer's Diaper Industry Directory |
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A copy of my
last Paper, presented at Insight 2005: |
Diapernextyears.ppt |
Text
Version: "The Future of the
Diaper Industry" Please Click
Here |
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1000's |
1000's |
1000's |
Diapers/Year |
Diapers/year |
Market Penetration |
Diapers Est. |
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This page is CopyRight, 2005
Richer Investment S.A. de C.V. |
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Country |
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Total. Pop. |
Babies [0-2] |
Babies [0-2] |
1000's |
1000's |
(estimated 2005) |
2005 |
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Organized by |
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2005 |
2005 |
2025 |
2005 |
2025 |
Read Note |
1000's |
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Organized: Top 10 |
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Population |
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(***) |
(***) |
Max. Market Pot. |
Max. Market Pot. |
(**) |
Current Vol. |
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1 |
China 1,313,973,713 |
1,313,973 |
47,238 |
40,614 |
76,209,065 |
60,185,146 |
6% |
4,191,499 |
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Top 10 Largest Potential diaper consumers in 2005 |
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2 |
India 1,095,351,995 |
1,095,351 |
57,681 |
55,631 |
93,055,951 |
82,439,579 |
2% |
1,861,119 |
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1-India |
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3 |
United States 298,444,215 |
298,444 |
9,609 |
11,759 |
15,502,200 |
17,425,662 |
96% |
14,820,103 |
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2-China |
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4 |
Indonesia 245,452,739 |
245,452 |
12,003 |
10,931 |
19,363,633 |
16,198,649 |
6% |
1,161,818 |
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3-Indonesia |
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5 |
Brazil 188,078,227 |
188,078 |
8,299 |
6,858 |
13,387,970 |
10,162,129 |
31% |
4,150,271 |
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4-Pakistan |
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6 |
Pakistan 165,803,560 |
165,803 |
11,235 |
10,925 |
18,124,619 |
16,189,017 |
3% |
543,739 |
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5-Nigeria |
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7 |
Bangladesh 147,365,352 |
147,365 |
7,942 |
10,246 |
12,812,022 |
15,183,547 |
1% |
128,120 |
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6-United States |
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8 |
Russia 142,893,540 |
142,893 |
3,156 |
2,756 |
5,090,768 |
4,083,375 |
21% |
1,069,061 |
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7-Brazil |
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9 |
Nigeria 131,866,254 |
131,866 |
9,664 |
15,865 |
15,590,931 |
23,510,344 |
1% |
155,909 |
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8-Bangladesh |
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10 |
Japan 127,463,611 |
127,463 |
3,018 |
2,290 |
4,868,939 |
3,393,551 |
97% |
4,722,871 |
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9-Etiophia |
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11 |
Mexico 107,449,525 |
107,449 |
5,638 |
5,124 |
9,095,785 |
7,592,515 |
56% |
5,093,640 |
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10-Mexico |
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12 |
Philippines 89,468,677 |
89,468 |
5,273 |
5,499 |
8,506,931 |
8,148,968 |
29% |
2,467,010 |
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13 |
Vietnam 84,402,966 |
84,402 |
3,830 |
3,374 |
6,178,132 |
4,999,190 |
7% |
432,469 |
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14 |
Germany 82,422,299 |
82,422 |
1,966 |
1,701 |
3,171,748 |
2,519,971 |
96% |
3,044,878 |
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Top 10 Largest Potential diaper consumers in 2025 |
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15 |
Egypt 78,887,007 |
78,887 |
4,402 |
4,359 |
7,101,747 |
6,459,602 |
31% |
2,201,541 |
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1-India |
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16 |
Ethiopia 74,777,981 |
74,777 |
5,656 |
6,785 |
9,124,825 |
10,053,951 |
1% |
91,248 |
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2-China |
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17 |
Turkey 70,413,958 |
70,413 |
3,017 |
2,566 |
4,866,519 |
3,802,555 |
44% |
2,141,269 |
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3-Nigeria |
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18 |
Iran 68,688,433 |
68,688 |
3,002 |
2,737 |
4,842,320 |
4,055,219 |
31% |
1,501,119 |
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4-United States |
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19 |
Thailand 66,004,088 |
66,004 |
2,644 |
2,168 |
4,265,565 |
3,212,018 |
42% |
1,791,537 |
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5-Indonesia |
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20 |
Congo (Kinshasa) 61,895,946 |
61,895 |
4,990 |
8,389 |
8,050,367 |
12,431,659 |
1% |
80,504 |
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6-Pakistan |
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21 |
France 60,876,136 |
60,876 |
1,843 |
1,656 |
2,972,505 |
2,454,026 |
95% |
2,823,880 |
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7-Bangladesh |
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22 |
United Kingdom 60,609,153 |
60,609 |
1,784 |
1,667 |
2,878,127 |
2,469,586 |
95% |
2,734,221 |
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8-Congo |
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23 |
Italy 58,133,509 |
58,133 |
1,319 |
1,048 |
2,127,943 |
1,552,290 |
96% |
2,042,825 |
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9-Ethiopia |
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24 |
Korea, South 48,604,055 |
48,604 |
1,641 |
1,115 |
2,647,425 |
1,652,319 |
85% |
2,250,312 |
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10-Philippines |
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25 |
Ukraine 47,138,348 |
47,138 |
1,144 |
1,007 |
1,844,809 |
1,492,273 |
24% |
442,754 |
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26 |
South Africa 44,187,637 |
44,187 |
2,311 |
1,541 |
3,727,530 |
2,282,867 |
49% |
1,826,490 |
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27 |
Colombia 43,593,035 |
43,593 |
2,226 |
2,230 |
3,591,206 |
3,304,637 |
55% |
1,975,163 |
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Top 10 Largest sellers in 2005 considering actual
market penetration |
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28 |
Burma 43,085,772 |
43,085 |
2,021 |
1,490 |
3,259,673 |
2,208,031 |
6% |
195,580 |
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1-United States |
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29 |
Sudan 41,236,378 |
41,236 |
2,983 |
3,430 |
4,811,667 |
5,082,917 |
2% |
96,233 |
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2-Mexico |
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30 |
Spain 40,397,842 |
40,397 |
927 |
746 |
1,494,722 |
1,104,756 |
93% |
1,390,092 |
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3-Japan |
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31 |
Argentina 39,921,833 |
39,921 |
1,687 |
1,475 |
2,721,637 |
2,185,062 |
42% |
1,143,088 |
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4-Brazil |
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32 |
Poland 38,646,764 |
38,646 |
1,009 |
852 |
1,627,013 |
1,261,838 |
21% |
341,673 |
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5-Germany |
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33 |
Tanzania 37,445,392 |
37,445 |
2,829 |
3,480 |
4,564,026 |
5,157,012 |
1% |
45,640 |
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6-France |
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34 |
Kenya 34,707,817 |
34,707 |
2,307 |
2,289 |
3,721,076 |
3,391,328 |
4% |
148,843 |
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7-United Kingdom |
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35 |
Morocco 33,241,259 |
33,241 |
1,770 |
1,727 |
2,855,541 |
2,558,500 |
21% |
599,664 |
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8-Philippines |
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36 |
Canada 33,098,932 |
33,098 |
924 |
979 |
1,489,883 |
1,450,780 |
96% |
1,430,287 |
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9-Korea, South |
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37 |
Algeria 32,930,091 |
32,930 |
1,510 |
1,358 |
2,435,276 |
2,012,420 |
20% |
487,055 |
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10-China |
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38 |
Afghanistan 31,056,997 |
31,056 |
2,161 |
3,910 |
3,485,535 |
5,793,488 |
1% |
34,855 |
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39 |
Peru 28,302,603 |
28,302 |
1,487 |
1,298 |
2,398,977 |
1,922,765 |
26% |
623,734 |
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Top 10 largest growth requirement of diapers in future years |
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40 |
Nepal 28,287,147 |
28,287 |
1,844 |
2,090 |
2,974,119 |
3,097,171 |
5% |
148,706 |
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1- Uganda |
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41 |
Uganda 28,195,754 |
28,195 |
2,339 |
5,390 |
3,773,509 |
7,986,700 |
5% |
188,675 |
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2- Yemen |
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42 |
Uzbekistan 27,307,134 |
27,307 |
1,458 |
1,734 |
2,352,191 |
2,569,615 |
n.a. |
n.a. |
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3- Afganmistan |
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43 |
Saudi Arabia 27,019,731 |
27,019 |
1,681 |
1,989 |
2,711,151 |
2,947,499 |
42% |
1,138,683 |
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3- Congo |
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44 |
Iraq 26,783,383 |
26,783 |
1,766 |
2,102 |
2,848,281 |
3,114,213 |
6% |
170,897 |
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4- Mali |
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45 |
Venezuela 25,730,435 |
25,730 |
1,255 |
1,205 |
2,023,885 |
1,785,690 |
55% |
1,113,137 |
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5- Nigeria |
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46 |
Malaysia 24,385,858 |
24,385 |
1,337 |
1,573 |
2,156,982 |
2,331,029 |
42% |
905,932 |
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6- Madagascar |
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47 |
Korea, North 23,113,019 |
23,113 |
828 |
803 |
1,335,006 |
1,189,225 |
3% |
40,050 |
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7- Burkina Faso |
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48 |
Taiwan 23,036,087 |
23,036 |
745 |
602 |
1,201,909 |
892,104 |
96% |
1,153,832 |
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8- Niger |
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49 |
Romania 22,303,552 |
22,303 |
575 |
458 |
927,648 |
677,969 |
19% |
176,253 |
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9- Malawi |
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50 |
Yemen 21,456,188 |
21,466 |
1,607 |
3,093 |
2,591,766 |
4,582,776 |
2% |
51,835 |
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10-Angola |
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51 |
Ghana |
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20,727 |
1,568 |
1,535 |
2,529,654 |
2,274,717 |
4% |
101,186 |
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52 |
Australia |
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20,090 |
629 |
640 |
1,014,766 |
948,416 |
89% |
903,141 |
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Top 10 largest volume reduction needs for diapers |
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53 |
Sri Lanka |
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20,064 |
781 |
689 |
1,259,987 |
1,021,029 |
7% |
88,199 |
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1- South Africa |
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54 |
Mozambique |
19,406 |
1,479 |
1,488 |
2,386,071 |
2,205,067 |
1% |
23,861 |
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2- South Korea |
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55 |
Syiria |
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18,448 |
1,247 |
1,192 |
2,011,785 |
1,766,425 |
4% |
80,471 |
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3- Burma |
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56 |
Madagazcar |
18,040 |
1,598 |
2,572 |
2,578,053 |
3,811,447 |
1.5% |
38,671 |
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4- Japan |
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57 |
Cote D' Ivoire |
17,298 |
1,324 |
1,505 |
2,136,009 |
2,230,260 |
3% |
64,080 |
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5- Italy |
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58 |
Cameroon |
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16,988 |
1,303 |
1,472 |
2,102,130 |
2,181,357 |
4% |
84,085 |
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6- Romania |
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59 |
Netherlands |
16,407 |
481 |
454 |
775,997 |
672,783 |
92% |
713,918 |
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7- Spain |
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60 |
Chile |
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15,980 |
628 |
581 |
1,013,152 |
860,984 |
65% |
658,549 |
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8- Taiwan |
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61 |
Kazakhstan |
15,185 |
550 |
512 |
887,315 |
758,733 |
32% |
283,941 |
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9- Serbia and Montenegro |
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62 |
Cambodia |
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13,636 |
814 |
1,024 |
1,313,226 |
1,517,466 |
2% |
26,265 |
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10-Thailand |
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63 |
Burkina Faso |
13,491 |
1,258 |
1,990 |
2,029,531 |
2,948,981 |
2% |
40,591 |
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64 |
Ecuador |
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13,363 |
752 |
721 |
1,213,202 |
1,068,450 |
38% |
461,017 |
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65 |
Malawi |
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12,707 |
1,151 |
1,600 |
1,856,908 |
2,371,040 |
1% |
18,569 |
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66 |
Niger |
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12,162 |
1,183 |
1,752 |
1,908,534 |
2,596,289 |
1% |
19,085 |
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67 |
Zimbabwe |
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12,160 |
799 |
659 |
1,289,027 |
976,572 |
2% |
25,781 |
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68 |
Guatemala |
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12,013 |
875 |
873 |
1,411,638 |
1,293,699 |
18% |
254,095 |
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69 |
Angola |
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11,827 |
1,017 |
1,320 |
1,640,726 |
1,956,108 |
7% |
114,851 |
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70 |
Senegal |
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11,706 |
889 |
896 |
1,434,224 |
1,327,782 |
5% |
71,711 |
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71 |
Mali |
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11,415 |
1,129 |
1,894 |
1,821,416 |
2,806,719 |
2% |
36,428 |
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72 |
Cuba |
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11,346 |
350 |
295 |
564,655 |
437,161 |
25% |
141,164 |
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73 |
Zambia |
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11,261 |
999 |
1,204 |
1,611,687 |
1,784,208 |
1% |
16,117 |
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74 |
Serbia and Montenegro |
10,829 |
321 |
263 |
517,869 |
389,740 |
10% |
51,787 |
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75 |
Greece |
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10,668 |
256 |
216 |
413,005 |
320,090 |
74% |
305,624 |
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Total in 1000's |
456,481,622 |
433,083,052 |
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Click Here to return to Carlos Richer's Diaper
Industry Directory |
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Required/sec |
14,475 |
13,733 |
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Note(*): To calculate 2025 diaper consumption, the
model assumes the current rate of improvement for diaper performance is
mantained so there are less diapers required per day in 2025 |
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in comparisson to 2005. |
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Note(**): I had precise data for only 8
countries. I used a simple model based
on known market penetration, disposable income and poverty levels to forecast
countries without market data.
Estimates are not accurate! |
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Note (***): The model assumes babies only from 0 to 2
years old, some areas like USA babies continue to use diapers until 2.5 years
old, others like China stop using diapers before 2 years of age. |
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Note (****): If you are interested
in a smaller country not listed please let me know, just send me an E mail
and I will give you an estimate. |
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****Please do not make
illegal copies of this table for public use*** |
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